The inversion of the US yield curve has recently sparked debate across the investment industry of a looming recession. A Division of NBCUniversal. And though it can take up to 34 months for a recession to hit after the curve inverts, it's among the first signs an economy is shrinking. Plus500. This method provides a yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity. Because an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since 1955, economists call that phenomenon a stylized fact, which means that a phenomenon occurs with such consistency that it is commonly considered a truth. (That part of the curve inverted again on Monday.). Chart 1: Yield curve (spread between US 10-year and 3-month Treasuries, daily numbers, in %) in 2019. An inverted yield-curve occurs when long-term debts have a lower yield as compared with short-term debt. The inverted yield curve (spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) occurred on August 14, 2019 (for the first time since 2007). No, an inverted yield curve has sent false positives before. One of the initial curves that finance professor Campbell Harvey examined, the 5-year to the 3-month, has been inverted since February. It was the first time since mid-2007 that the yield curve — which plots bond yields from shortest maturity to highest and is considered a barometer of economic sentiment — inverted. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note on Friday dipped below the yield on the 3-month paper.